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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > COSME Archive > TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

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WTPA41 PHFO 191458
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 AM HST THU JUL 19 2007

SINCE LAST EVENING...THE CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF COSME HAS DISSIPATED BUT NEW CONVECTION HAS FORMED WEST OF THE CENTER. IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER USING CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0708 UTC...1003 UTC AND 1127 UTC HAS ALLOWED US TO KEEP A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK. WE CAN BE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT COSME HAS CONTINUED HEADING ALONG THE SAME DIRECTION...GENERALLY WESTWARD...AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED... 16 MPH...OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 2.5. THE AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS WAS 30 KT. WE THINK THE 2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE AMSU INTENSITY ARE REPRESENTATIVE AND HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.

A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER COSME TOWARD THE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION AND WE HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE BEEN A BIT SURPRISED THAT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED AROUND COSME AND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED SO WELL ORGANIZED WHILE IT IS MOVING OVER FAIRLY COOL WATER...ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THE LATEST GFDL AND SHIP FORECASTS NOW SHOW COSME STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WATER TEMPERATURE OR SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS...WE ARE FORECASTING NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. AFTER 60 HOURS...WE EXPECT COSME TO BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER BUT ALSO INTO AN AREA WITH STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH OF THESE FACTORS WILL PREVAIL. WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECASTS BEYOND 72 HOURS TO KEEP THE INTENSITY UNCHANGED RATHER THAN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS WE HAD DONE IN OUR PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PAST 72 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 15.7N 144.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 16.1N 146.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 16.6N 149.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 17.1N 152.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 155.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 18.1N 161.8W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 18.3N 167.7W 30 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 18.2N 173.3W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

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