Skip Navigation Linkweather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo-Select to go to the NWS homepage
Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Local forecast by
"City, St" or Zip Code
  
   RSS FeedsRSS Feeds
Get Storm Info
   Products
   Satellite
   Radar
   Analyses/Forecasts
   Hydrology
   E-mail Updates
   Help with Advisories
Awareness
   Hurricane Safety
       Info

   Tropical Cyclone
      Names

   Saffir-Simpson
      Scale

   Glossary
   Acronyms
   FAQ
   Breakpoints
Hurricane History
   Annual Summaries
   Product Archive
   Climatology
About the CPHC
   Our Mission
   Our Office
   News Items
   Hawaii RSS FeedsHI RSS Feeds
Contact Us

Pacific Region Links
   Regional HQ
   WFO Honolulu
   WFO Guam
   WSO Pago Pago
   Pacific Tsunami
      Warning Center

   International
      Tsunami
      Information
      Center

   Pacific ENSO
      Application
      Center


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services
Follow the National Weather Service on Facebook
NWS on Facebook
Follow the National Weather Service on Twitter
NWS on Twitter
Weath
er-Ready Nation
Weather-Ready Nation

NOAA > NWS > CPHC > COSME Archive > TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

Product Help

WTPA41 PHFO 190852
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 PM HST WED JUL 18 2007

COSME IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE.

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AN AREA OF COLD CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF COSME HAS EXPANDED AND COVERED THE CENTER. THAT MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 0513 DMSP PASS SHOWED THE CENTER NICELY. THESE DATA CAME IN AFTER WE REQUESTED THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SO WE SHIFTED THE 0600 UTC POSITION TO MATCH THE LOCATION FROM THE MICROWAVE PASS. THERE WAS ALSO A NICE QUIKSCAT PASS OVER COSME AT 0316 UTC. THE QUICKSCAT SHOWED 30 KT WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 90 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER COSME TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MOVEMENT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION AND WE HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK.

WHILE THE TRACK HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...FORECASTING THE INTENSITY REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER FAIRLY COOL WATER...ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST CIMSS VERTICAL PRODUCT SHOWED FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...THEN A RETURN TO NEUTRAL VALUES. WE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 30 KT... BUT IF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS IT IS LIKELY WE WOULD TAKE COSME BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ON THE NEXT BULLETIN. COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATER WITH FAIRLY LOW SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO IF THE SYSTEM DOES LOSE ALL IT/S CONVECTION DURING THAT PERIOD...IT MAY WELL BECOME TOO WEAK TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IF COSME MANAGES TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION WHEN IT MOVES WEST OF 155W...IT WILL START MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATER. IF SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH AT THAT POINT...COSME MIGHT WELL RE-INTENSIFY. THESE UNCERTAINTIES KEEP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST RATHER LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 15.4N 142.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.9N 144.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.4N 147.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 17.0N 151.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 154.1W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 18.1N 160.2W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 18.4N 166.1W 25 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 18.4N 171.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON

Back to COSME archive page