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NOAA > NWS > CPHC > COSME Archive > TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

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WTPA41 PHFO 190239
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 PM HST WED JUL 18 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME MAINLY CONSISTS OF A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY FLARING UP NEAR THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE THROUGH 5 DAYS. COSME SHOULD CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHOWN BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP COSME WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAM MODELS WHICH BRING COSME OVER THE BIG ISLAND WITH THE UKMET ALSO CLIPPING THE BIG ISLAND. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY KEEPING COSME AT 30 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING IT TO A REMNANT LOW IN 120 HOURS. COSME WILL REMAIN OVER 77 DEGREE WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY OVER WARMER WATERS OF AROUND 80 DEGREES BY DAY 5. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SHEAR IS THEN FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS COSME BACK TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT 120 HOURS PROBABLY DUE TO THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 15.3N 141.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 15.4N 143.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 15.9N 146.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 16.6N 149.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.1N 152.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.8N 158.4W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 18.2N 164.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 24/0000Z 18.3N 170.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

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