FOPA15 PHFO 262041
PWSCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 am HST Wed Aug 26 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 2 4 6 13 12
TROP DEPRESSION 14 26 21 22 25 30 34
TROPICAL STORM 84 69 67 62 56 50 48
HURRICANE 2 3 10 12 13 7 6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 3 9 11 11 6 5
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 2 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
10N 160W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
15N 160W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 1(20) X(20)
15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14)
15N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER TANABE