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TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 pm HST Tue Aug 25 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 2 2 2 2 5 9
TROP DEPRESSION 38 26 20 16 13 20 30
TROPICAL STORM 60 69 68 63 59 57 51
HURRICANE 1 4 10 19 26 18 10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 9 16 21 14 9
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 3 4 3 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 50KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)
10N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) X(28)
15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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