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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA15 PHFO 250247
PWSCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11            
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112009         
500 pm HST Mon Aug 24 2009
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       1       1       1
TROP DEPRESSION  1       4       5       6       6       6       5
TROPICAL STORM  87      77      60      57      51      44      44
HURRICANE       13      19      35      36      41      49      50
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12      17      30      28      30      35      33
HUR CAT 2        1       2       4       6       9      10      12
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       2       3       4       4
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    55KT    60KT    60KT    65KT    70KT    75KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   7(19)   2(21)   1(22)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   4(15)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  16(21)  13(34)
BUOY 51002     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)
BUOY 51002     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
10N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
15N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  19(34)
15N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
15N 160W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)
20N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)
BUOY 51003     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
BUOY 51003     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BUOY 51001     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KODAMA