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TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 am HST Mon Aug 24 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 1 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 1 2 2 4 3 6 5
TROPICAL STORM 87 65 49 49 43 45 45
HURRICANE 13 33 48 47 53 49 50
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 30 39 35 37 35 33
HUR CAT 2 1 3 7 8 11 9 12
HUR CAT 3 X 1 3 3 4 4 4
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 70KT 70KT 75KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BUOY 51004 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 10(22) 2(24) 1(25)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 6(23)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 17(31)
15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
$$
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