National Weather Service

• • RSS Feeds
• Get Storm Info
  • Products
  • Satellite
  • Radar
  • Analyses/Forecasts
  • Hydrology
  • E-mail Updates
  • Help with Advisories
• Awareness
  • Preparedness
  • Weather School
  • Storm Names
  • Saffir-Simpson Scale
  • Glossary
  • Acronyms
  • FAQ
  • Breakpoints
• Hurricane History
  • Annual Summaries
  • Product Archive
  • Climatology
• About the CPHC
  • Our Mission
  • Our Office
  • News Items
  • HI RSS Feeds
• Contact Us
  • Webmaster
• Pacific Region Links
  • Regional HQ
  • WFO Honolulu
  • WFO Guam
  • WSO Pago Pago
  • Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
  • International Tsunami Information Center

NWS on Facebook

NWS on Twitter

Weather-Ready Nation

• NOAA
  • » NWS
    • » CPHC Home Page
      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA15 PHFO 240836
PWSCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8            
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112009         
1100 pm HST Sun Aug 23 2009
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH.                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       1       1       1
TROP DEPRESSION  1       2       2       4       3       6       5
TROPICAL STORM  87      65      49      49      43      45      45
HURRICANE       13      33      48      47      53      48      50
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12      30      39      35      37      35      34
HUR CAT 2        1       3       7       8      11       9      11
HUR CAT 3        X       1       3       3       4       4       4
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       X       X       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    60KT    65KT    65KT    70KT    70KT    75KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34 94   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
15N 145W       50 27   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
15N 145W       64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)  17(31)   3(34)   1(35)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
BUOY 51004     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   3(18)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
SOUTH POINT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)  10(32)
BUOY 51002     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
BUOY 51002     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
10N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
15N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  16(29)
15N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
15N 160W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
BUOY 51003     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BIRCHARD