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TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 2 4 3 4
TROP DEPRESSION 7 8 14 17 20 16 20
TROPICAL STORM 91 80 70 63 59 57 56
HURRICANE 3 12 16 18 17 24 21
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 11 14 15 14 19 17
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 3 4 3
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 55KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 2 61(63) 7(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
15N 145W 50 X 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
15N 145W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) 1(23)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
$$
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