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  • » NWS
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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA15 PHFO 141447
PWSCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4      
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042006         
500 am HST Sat Oct 14 2006
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2am Sat 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 160W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2am Sat 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 130N 1655W 34  6   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 12 130N 1655W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 130N 1655W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 142N 1644W 34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 142N 1644W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 142N 1644W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 148N 1635W 34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 148N 1635W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 148N 1635W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 155N 1625W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 155N 1625W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 155N 1625W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 165N 1605W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 72 165N 1605W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 165N 1605W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     25     20      20      20      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER DONALDSON