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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA15 PHFO 140853
PWSCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3      
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042006         
1100 pm HST Fri Oct 13 2006
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8pm Fri 8am Sat 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8pm Mon 8pm Tue
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8am Sat 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8pm Fri 8am Sat 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8pm Mon 8pm Tue
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8am Sat 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 145N 1653W 34 17   7(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 12 145N 1653W 50  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 145N 1653W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 151N 1648W 34  7  11(18)   2(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 24 151N 1648W 50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 151N 1648W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 157N 1641W 34  1   8( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 36 157N 1641W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 157N 1641W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 164N 1630W 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 48 164N 1630W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 164N 1630W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 175N 1610W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 72 175N 1610W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 175N 1610W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     30      25      25      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER DONALDSON