FOPA14 PHFO 301430
PWSCP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER 64
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1500Z FRI SEP 30 2005
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 153.9 WEST WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HILO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SOUTH POINT 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KAILUA-KONA 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 194N 1556W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
12 194N 1556W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
12 194N 1556W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 197N 1576W 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
24 197N 1576W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 197N 1576W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25 25 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
FORECASTER CRAIG
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