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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA14 PHFO 282030
PWSCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER  57                     
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
2100Z WED SEP 28 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM                               
KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...                     
LONGITUDE 146.0 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  40 KTS... 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 192N 1473W 34 48   4(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 12 192N 1473W 50  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 192N 1473W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 200N 1493W 34  2  20(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 24 200N 1493W 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 24 200N 1493W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 204N 1515W 34  X   3( 3)  11(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 36 204N 1515W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 204N 1515W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 210N 1537W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 210N 1537W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 210N 1537W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 222N 1579W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 222N 1579W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 222N 1579W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 240N 1627W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 96 240N 1627W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 240N 1627W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     35      30      25      20      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER KODAMA                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$