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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA14 PHFO 281440
PWSCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER  56                     
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
1500Z WED SEP 28 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM                               
KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...                     
LONGITUDE 145.5 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  45 KTS... 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
20N 145W       34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 189N 1469W 34 69   5(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 12 189N 1469W 50  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 12 189N 1469W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 199N 1490W 34  4  30(34)   6(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 24 199N 1490W 50  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 199N 1490W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 202N 1514W 34  1   3( 4)  14(18)   4(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 36 202N 1514W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 36 202N 1514W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 203N 1537W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 48 203N 1537W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 203N 1537W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 207N 1589W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 72 207N 1589W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 207N 1589W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 230N 1636W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 96 230N 1636W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 230N 1636W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     40      35      30      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON
                                   
$$