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FOPA14 PHFO 280237
PWSCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER  54                     
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
0300Z WED SEP 28 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM                               
KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...                     
LONGITUDE 143.2 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  45 KTS... 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
15N 145W       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  1   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 171N 1442W 34 73   5(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 12 171N 1442W 50  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 12 171N 1442W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 182N 1457W 34  7  31(38)   5(43)   X(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 24 182N 1457W 50  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 182N 1457W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 189N 1474W 34  1   8( 9)  13(22)   4(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 36 189N 1474W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 189N 1474W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 192N 1492W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 48 192N 1492W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 192N 1492W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 196N 1532W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
 72 196N 1532W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 196N 1532W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 196N 1573W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 96 196N 1573W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 196N 1573W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     40      35      30      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER MATSUDA                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$