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FOPA14 PHFO 272047
PWSCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER  53                     
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
2100Z TUE SEP 27 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM                               
KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...                     
LONGITUDE 142.2 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  45 KTS... 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
15N 145W       34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 145W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu 8am Thu
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 157N 1428W 34 78   4(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 12 157N 1428W 50  9   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 12 157N 1428W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 167N 1441W 34 10  29(39)   5(44)   X(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 24 167N 1441W 50  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 167N 1441W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 176N 1456W 34  1   9(10)  12(22)   4(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 36 176N 1456W 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 176N 1456W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 183N 1471W 34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 48 183N 1471W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 183N 1471W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 187N 1509W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 72 187N 1509W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 187N 1509W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 188N 1546W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 96 188N 1546W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 188N 1546W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     40      35      30      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER MATSUDA                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$