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FOPA14 PHFO 270230
PWSCP4

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH PROBABILITIES NUMBER  50                     
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
0300Z TUE SEP 27 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM                               
KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...                     
LONGITUDE 141.4 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  55 KTS... 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
15N 145W       34  1  11(12)  11(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
15N 145W       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 145W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 148N 1423W 34 80   8(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 148N 1423W 50 24   5(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 12 148N 1423W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 158N 1437W 34  4  50(54)   8(62)   X(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 158N 1437W 50  X  13(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 24 158N 1437W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 169N 1453W 34  X   8( 8)  27(35)   6(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 36 169N 1453W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 169N 1453W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 182N 1470W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  14(22)   6(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 48 182N 1470W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 48 182N 1470W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 200N 1506W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 72 200N 1506W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 200N 1506W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 212N 1537W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 96 212N 1537W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 212N 1537W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 224N 1567W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
120 224N 1567W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 224N 1567W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     50      45      40      35      30      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER CRAIG                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$