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  • » NWS
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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA14 PHFO 170845
PWSCP4

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21        
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102009         
1100 pm HST Sun Aug 16 2009
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH.                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       2       9      12      22      31      42
TROP DEPRESSION  3      27      39      37      39      39      36
TROPICAL STORM  92      68      48      46      36      28      22
HURRICANE        6       3       4       5       3       2       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        5       3       3       4       3       2       1
HUR CAT 2        1       X       X       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    40KT    35KT    35KT    30KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
30N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER DONALDSON