FOPA14 PHFO 170255
PWSCP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102009
500 pm HST Sun Aug 16 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 5 12 23 31 33
TROP DEPRESSION 1 15 30 38 39 39 36
TROPICAL STORM 87 78 60 45 36 28 30
HURRICANE 13 6 5 5 3 2 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 6 4 4 3 2 2
HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 145W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
25N 145W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
30N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB