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FOPA13 PHFO 220246
PWSCP3

HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  41                             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
0300Z THU SEP 22 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE                                    
JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...                        
LONGITUDE 147.5 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
20N 145W       34  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 50004     34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 192N 1482W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 192N 1482W 50 82   8(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 192N 1482W 64 46  14(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
 24 203N 1491W 34 64  26(90)   5(95)   X(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 24 203N 1491W 50  8  48(56)  10(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 24 203N 1491W 64  2  26(28)   9(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 36 218N 1501W 34  4  37(41)  34(75)   7(82)   2(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 36 218N 1501W 50  X   7( 7)  31(38)   8(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 36 218N 1501W 64  X   2( 2)  14(16)   6(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 48 238N 1511W 34  X   4( 4)  25(29)  28(57)  11(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 48 238N 1511W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   6(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 48 238N 1511W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 288N 1528W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)   7(36)   X(36)
 72 288N 1528W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 288N 1528W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 349N 1536W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)
 96 349N 1536W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 349N 1536W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 425N 1539W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
120 425N 1539W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 425N 1539W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95     90      85      75      65      50      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER POWELL                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$