Wind speed probabilities
Requested PWSCP3.EP102005.39.0509211437 with times in HST
Display as UTC

FOPA13 PHFO 211437
PWSCP3

HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39                             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
1500Z WED SEP 21 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE                                    
JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...                        
LONGITUDE 146.7 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2am Sun 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2am Sun 2am Sun
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2am Sun 2am Sun 2am Sun
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
15N 145W       34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 145W       34 14   7(21)   3(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BUOY 50004     34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2am Sun 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2am Sun 2am Sun
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2am Sun 2am Sun 2am Sun
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 182N 1474W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 182N 1474W 50 86   6(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 12 182N 1474W 64 56  11(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 
 24 191N 1483W 34 79  15(94)   3(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 24 191N 1483W 50 16  44(60)   9(69)   2(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 24 191N 1483W 64  3  30(33)   9(42)   1(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
 36 202N 1493W 34 15  43(58)  22(80)   7(87)   3(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 36 202N 1493W 50  1  14(15)  28(43)   9(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 36 202N 1493W 64  X   3( 3)  17(20)   6(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 48 217N 1503W 34  2  10(12)  30(42)  24(66)  13(79)   1(80)   X(80)
 48 217N 1503W 50  X   1( 1)  10(11)  19(30)  10(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 48 217N 1503W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 
 72 259N 1522W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  37(42)  11(53)   1(54)
 72 259N 1522W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   5(21)   X(21)
 72 259N 1522W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 320N 1535W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   5(26)
 96 320N 1535W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 96 320N 1535W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 405N 1541W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
120 405N 1541W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 405N 1541W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    100     95      90      90      85      70      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER FARRELL                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$