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HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1500Z WED SEP 21 2005
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 146.7 WEST WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 145W 34 14 7(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BUOY 50004 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
HILO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 182N 1474W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 182N 1474W 50 86 6(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
12 182N 1474W 64 56 11(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
24 191N 1483W 34 79 15(94) 3(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
24 191N 1483W 50 16 44(60) 9(69) 2(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72)
24 191N 1483W 64 3 30(33) 9(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
36 202N 1493W 34 15 43(58) 22(80) 7(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90)
36 202N 1493W 50 1 14(15) 28(43) 9(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55)
36 202N 1493W 64 X 3( 3) 17(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
48 217N 1503W 34 2 10(12) 30(42) 24(66) 13(79) 1(80) X(80)
48 217N 1503W 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 10(40) X(40) X(40)
48 217N 1503W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17)
72 259N 1522W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 11(53) 1(54)
72 259N 1522W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) X(21)
72 259N 1522W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
96 320N 1535W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26)
96 320N 1535W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
96 320N 1535W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 405N 1541W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
120 405N 1541W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 405N 1541W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 100 95 90 90 85 70 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
FORECASTER FARRELL
$$
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