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FOPA13 PHFO 210836
PWSCP3

HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38                             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
0900Z WED SEP 21 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE                                    
JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...                        
LONGITUDE 146.3 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Wed
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
15N 145W       34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 145W       34 12   8(20)   5(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BUOY 50004     34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             8am Thu 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Wed
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 178N 1471W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 178N 1471W 50 84   7(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 12 178N 1471W 64 53  12(65)   2(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 
 24 187N 1480W 34 78  16(94)   3(97)   X(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 24 187N 1480W 50 14  46(60)   8(68)   2(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 24 187N 1480W 64  3  29(32)   9(41)   1(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
 36 197N 1489W 34 19  45(64)  18(82)   6(88)   2(90)   1(91)   X(91)
 36 197N 1489W 50  1  17(18)  25(43)   9(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 36 197N 1489W 64  X   5( 5)  16(21)   5(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 48 208N 1498W 34  3  18(21)  30(51)  17(68)  12(80)   1(81)   X(81)
 48 208N 1498W 50  X   2( 2)  15(17)  16(33)   9(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 48 208N 1498W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   6(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 
 72 246N 1520W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  37(43)  11(54)   X(54)
 72 246N 1520W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   5(21)   X(21)
 72 246N 1520W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 299N 1534W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   5(27)
 96 299N 1534W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
 96 299N 1534W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 379N 1541W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
120 379N 1541W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 379N 1541W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95     95      90      90      85      70      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER FARRELL                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$