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HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0300Z WED SEP 21 2005
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 145.8 WEST WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 8 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
20N 145W 34 16 11(27) 5(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
20N 145W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BUOY 50004 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11)
HILO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 176N 1465W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 176N 1465W 50 85 6(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
12 176N 1465W 64 54 11(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
24 184N 1474W 34 80 14(94) 3(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98)
24 184N 1474W 50 17 43(60) 8(68) 2(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71)
24 184N 1474W 64 3 29(32) 9(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
36 194N 1483W 34 22 42(64) 18(82) 6(88) 2(90) 1(91) X(91)
36 194N 1483W 50 1 16(17) 26(43) 9(52) 3(55) 1(56) X(56)
36 194N 1483W 64 X 5( 5) 15(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
48 205N 1492W 34 3 18(21) 30(51) 17(68) 12(80) 1(81) X(81)
48 205N 1492W 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 15(32) 10(42) X(42) X(42)
48 205N 1492W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19)
72 236N 1513W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 34(45) 10(55) 1(56)
72 236N 1513W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) X(21)
72 236N 1513W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
96 279N 1534W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 4(28)
96 279N 1534W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
96 279N 1534W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 331N 1553W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
120 331N 1553W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 331N 1553W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95 95 90 90 85 70 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
FORECASTER POWELL
$$
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