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FOPA13 PHFO 200250
PWSCP3

HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33                             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE                                    
JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...                        
LONGITUDE 143.5 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
15N 145W       34 51   7(58)   3(61)   1(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
15N 145W       50  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
15N 145W       64  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  4  13(17)  14(31)   8(39)   7(46)   1(47)   1(48)
20N 145W       50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 166N 1443W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 166N 1443W 50 85   5(90)   1(91)   X(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 12 166N 1443W 64 54  10(64)   2(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 
 24 172N 1451W 34 88   7(95)   2(97)   X(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 24 172N 1451W 50 28  33(61)   6(67)   2(69)   1(70)   1(71)   X(71)
 24 172N 1451W 64  7  25(32)   6(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 36 177N 1459W 34 53  26(79)   7(86)   4(90)   2(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 36 177N 1459W 50  3  26(29)  17(46)   6(52)   2(54)   X(54)   1(55)
 36 177N 1459W 64  1   9(10)  12(22)   5(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 48 187N 1466W 34  7  29(36)  21(57)  12(69)   6(75)   2(77)   X(77)
 48 187N 1466W 50  X   5( 5)  12(17)  12(29)   6(35)   1(36)   X(36)
 48 187N 1466W 64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 206N 1479W 34  1   3( 4)   8(12)  15(27)  18(45)   6(51)   1(52)
 72 206N 1479W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   2(17)   X(17)
 72 206N 1479W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 234N 1494W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  12(23)   3(26)
 96 234N 1494W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 96 234N 1494W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 265N 1520W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
120 265N 1520W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 265N 1520W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95     90      85      80      70      65      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER MATSUDA                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$