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FOPA13 PHFO 201435
PWSCP3

HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35                             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
1500Z TUE SEP 20 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE                                    
JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...                        
LONGITUDE 144.9 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
15N 145W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 145W       50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 145W       34 10  11(21)   7(28)   5(33)   4(37)   X(37)   X(37)
20N 145W       50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu 2am Thu
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 170N 1457W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 170N 1457W 50 84   6(90)   1(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 12 170N 1457W 64 52  12(64)   1(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 
 24 176N 1467W 34 80  14(94)   2(96)   1(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 24 176N 1467W 50 19  41(60)   6(66)   3(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 24 176N 1467W 64  3  29(32)   8(40)   1(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
 36 183N 1475W 34 35  39(74)  10(84)   5(89)   3(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 36 183N 1475W 50  2  23(25)  20(45)   8(53)   3(56)   1(57)   X(57)
 36 183N 1475W 64  X   8( 8)  13(21)   6(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
 48 194N 1482W 34  5  26(31)  25(56)  14(70)  10(80)   1(81)   X(81)
 48 194N 1482W 50  X   3( 3)  14(17)  15(32)   7(39)   1(40)   X(40)
 48 194N 1482W 64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
 
 72 217N 1502W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)  29(48)   9(57)   2(59)
 72 217N 1502W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  15(18)   5(23)   X(23)
 72 217N 1502W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 244N 1528W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  19(29)   5(34)
 96 244N 1528W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 96 244N 1528W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
120 279N 1562W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
120 279N 1562W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
120 279N 1562W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95     95      90      90      85      80      75
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER FARRELL                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$