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FOPA13 PHFO 190230
PWSCP3

HURRICANE JOVA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29                             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI                    
0300Z MON SEP 19 2005                                               
                                                                    
...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...                      
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE                                    
JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...                        
LONGITUDE 141.5 WEST WITH                                           
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.         
 
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
 
Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
 
15N 145W       34 10  35(45)  14(59)   5(64)   2(66)   1(67)   X(67)
15N 145W       50  1   9(10)   9(19)   4(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
15N 145W       64  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
20N 145W       34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)   8(21)   3(24)   2(26)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
 
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM  
  TIME       2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO   
             2am Thu 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed 2pm Wed
 
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 HR POSITIONS  KT
 
 12 152N 1425W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 152N 1425W 50 77   8(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 12 152N 1425W 64 46  13(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 
 24 158N 1437W 34 63  26(89)   4(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 158N 1437W 50  9  43(52)   7(59)   2(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 24 158N 1437W 64  2  25(27)   7(34)   X(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
 36 163N 1448W 34 12  44(56)  18(74)   4(78)   2(80)   1(81)   X(81)
 36 163N 1448W 50  1  15(16)  20(36)   6(42)   1(43)   1(44)   X(44)
 36 163N 1448W 64  X   6( 6)  11(17)   4(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 48 169N 1457W 34  3  22(25)  27(52)  11(63)   5(68)   1(69)   1(70)
 48 169N 1457W 50  X   3( 3)  13(16)   9(25)   4(29)   1(30)   1(31)
 48 169N 1457W 64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 
 72 177N 1466W 34  1   7( 8)  19(27)  16(43)   9(52)   4(56)   1(57)
 72 177N 1466W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   7(17)   1(18)   1(19)
 72 177N 1466W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 193N 1475W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)  11(26)   6(32)   2(34)
 96 193N 1475W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 96 193N 1475W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 216N 1490W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   3(13)
120 216N 1490W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 216N 1490W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     90     85      80      75      65      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER CRAIG                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$