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  • » NWS
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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA13 PHFO 121445
PWSCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7        
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012009         
500 am HST Wed Aug 12 2009
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       3       4       5       4       3       3       3
TROP DEPRESSION 67      41      28      21      19      15      19
TROPICAL STORM  30      52      61      63      60      57      56
HURRICANE        1       2       5      13      18      26      22
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       2       5      11      15      20      18
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       3       4       3
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       1       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   30KT    35KT    40KT    45KT    50KT    55KT    55KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun 2am Mon
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 175W       34 20   3(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
20N 175W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HOUSTON