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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA13 PHFO 120842
PWSCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6        
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012009         
1100 pm HST Tue Aug 11 2009
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Thu 8pm Fri 8pm Sat 8pm Sun
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       3       4       5       4      15      23      25
TROP DEPRESSION 67      41      28      21      37      37      36
TROPICAL STORM  30      52      61      63      44      36      36
HURRICANE        1       2       5      13       5       4       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       2       5      11       4       3       3
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   30KT    35KT    40KT    45KT    35KT    30KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Thu 8pm Fri 8pm Sat
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Thu 8pm Fri 8pm Sat 8pm Sun
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 175W       34 14  10(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CRAIG