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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA13 PHFO 112054
PWSCP3

TROPICAL STORM MAKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012009         
1100 am HST Tue Aug 11 2009
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       1       1       1
TROP DEPRESSION 14      15      13      10       5       5       4
TROPICAL STORM  84      78      70      60      50      43      44
HURRICANE        2       6      16      28      44      51      52
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       6      14      23      32      35      34
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       4       9      11      12
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       3       5       5
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    50KT    55KT    65KT    70KT    75KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 175W       34 63  13(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
15N 175W       50  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 175W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KODAMA