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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA12 PHFO 150243
PWSCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26               
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007         
500 pm HST Tue Aug 14 2007
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BUOY 51004     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  8   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SOUTH POINT    34 64   2(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
SOUTH POINT    50 20   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34 22   9(31)   1(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
KAILUA-KONA    50  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KAHULUI        34  3   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
LANAI CITY     34  4  11(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  2   9(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
BUOY 51002     34 28  20(48)   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
BUOY 51002     50  4   8(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
BUOY 51002     64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HONOLULU       34  2   8(10)   8(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
HONOLULU       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LIHUE          34  1   4( 5)  10(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   4( 4)  12(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
NIIHAU         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 180N 1567W 34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 180N 1567W 50 83   5(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 180N 1567W 64 43  13(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
 24 187N 1582W 34 26  52(78)   7(85)   X(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 24 187N 1582W 50  5  46(51)   8(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 24 187N 1582W 64  X  21(21)   6(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 36 197N 1603W 34  2  13(15)  39(54)   8(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 36 197N 1603W 50  X   2( 2)  21(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 36 197N 1603W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 205N 1625W 34  X   2( 2)  12(14)  19(33)   4(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 48 205N 1625W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 205N 1625W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 219N 1670W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 219N 1670W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 72 219N 1670W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 234N 1717W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 96 234N 1717W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 234N 1717W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 244N 1762W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 244N 1762W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 244N 1762W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     80     75      65      55      35      30      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER POWELL