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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA12 PHFO 142045
PWSCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25               
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007         
1100 am HST Tue Aug 14 2007
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HILO           34 10   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
SOUTH POINT    34 70   4(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
SOUTH POINT    50 29   4(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SOUTH POINT    64  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34 22  14(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
KAILUA-KONA    50  4   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
KAHULUI        34  2   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
LANAI CITY     34  2  15(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
LANAI CITY     50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  2  12(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 51002     34 11  25(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
BUOY 51002     50  1   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HONOLULU       34  2  10(12)   8(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
HONOLULU       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LIHUE          34  X   5( 5)  11(16)   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   4( 4)  13(17)   5(22)   1(23)   X(23)   1(24)
NIIHAU         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 180N 1563W 34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 180N 1563W 50 83   5(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 180N 1563W 64 41  13(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
 24 189N 1582W 34  9  68(77)   7(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 24 189N 1582W 50  1  47(48)   8(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 24 189N 1582W 64  X  18(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 36 198N 1602W 34  1  15(16)  39(55)   7(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 36 198N 1602W 50  X   2( 2)  21(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 36 198N 1602W 64  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 206N 1624W 34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  20(33)   5(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 48 206N 1624W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 206N 1624W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 220N 1669W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 72 220N 1669W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 220N 1669W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 233N 1712W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 96 233N 1712W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 96 233N 1712W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 244N 1754W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 244N 1754W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 244N 1754W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     80     75      65      55      40      35      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER POWELL