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      • » Wind speed probabilities

FOPA12 PHFO 141435
PWSCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24               
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007         
500 am HST Tue Aug 14 2007
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
95 KTS...110 MPH.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BUOY 51004     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HILO           34 16   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
SOUTH POINT    34 75   9(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
SOUTH POINT    50 15   9(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SOUTH POINT    64  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34 19  22(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
KAILUA-KONA    50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KAHULUI        34  2   7( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
LANAI CITY     34  2  12(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  1   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
BUOY 51002     34  6  43(49)   3(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
BUOY 51002     50  1  14(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
BUOY 51002     64  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HONOLULU       34  1   8( 9)   6(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
LIHUE          34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   5(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 176N 1557W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 176N 1557W 50 83   6(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 12 176N 1557W 64 41  15(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
 24 184N 1579W 34  8  73(81)   6(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 24 184N 1579W 50  1  46(47)   9(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 24 184N 1579W 64  X  18(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 36 192N 1602W 34  1  14(15)  43(58)   7(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 36 192N 1602W 50  X   1( 1)  22(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 36 192N 1602W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 200N 1625W 34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  22(36)   5(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 48 200N 1625W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 200N 1625W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 214N 1667W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)
 72 214N 1667W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 214N 1667W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 225N 1706W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 96 225N 1706W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 225N 1706W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 236N 1743W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 236N 1743W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 236N 1743W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     85     75      65      55      40      35      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER DONALDSON