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FOPA12 PHFO 140856
PWSCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23               
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007         
1100 pm HST Mon Aug 13 2007
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri 8pm Sat
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BUOY 51004     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HILO           34 10   9(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
SOUTH POINT    34 47  25(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
SOUTH POINT    50  3  15(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SOUTH POINT    64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  6  25(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KAHULUI        34  1   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
LANAI CITY     34  1   8( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  1   6( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BUOY 51002     34  3  49(52)   8(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
BUOY 51002     50  X  16(16)   8(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
BUOY 51002     64  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
LIHUE          34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri 8pm Sat
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N 1552W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 172N 1552W 50 82   6(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 172N 1552W 64 35  18(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 
 24 180N 1573W 34 11  71(82)   6(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 24 180N 1573W 50  1  49(50)   9(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 24 180N 1573W 64  X  18(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 36 190N 1598W 34  X  11(11)  48(59)   7(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 36 190N 1598W 50  X   1( 1)  22(23)   5(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 36 190N 1598W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 198N 1622W 34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  23(36)   5(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 48 198N 1622W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 198N 1622W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 210N 1660W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 72 210N 1660W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 210N 1660W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 222N 1701W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 96 222N 1701W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 96 222N 1701W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 234N 1740W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 234N 1740W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 234N 1740W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     85     75      65      55      40      35      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA