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HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 pm HST Sun Aug 12 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...135 MPH.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BUOY 51004 34 1 41(42) 22(64) 2(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68)
BUOY 51004 50 X 10(10) 19(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
BUOY 51004 64 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
HILO 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) 8(35) X(35) 1(36)
HILO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SOUTH POINT 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 27(46) 11(57) 1(58) X(58)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23)
SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 15(42) 1(43) X(43)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13)
KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) 2(27) X(27)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 2(24) X(24)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 19(53) 2(55) X(55)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 1(24) X(24)
BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 3(23) X(23)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 1(19)
LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) 1(21)
NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 151N 1499W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 151N 1499W 50 88 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
12 151N 1499W 64 58 15(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
24 160N 1521W 34 5 82(87) 7(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
24 160N 1521W 50 1 61(62) 13(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
24 160N 1521W 64 X 37(37) 12(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
36 168N 1542W 34 1 19(20) 54(74) 10(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86)
36 168N 1542W 50 X 4( 4) 42(46) 11(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59)
36 168N 1542W 64 X 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
48 176N 1561W 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 29(60) 14(74) 1(75) X(75)
48 176N 1561W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41)
48 176N 1561W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19)
72 191N 1598W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 8(44) 1(45)
72 191N 1598W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15)
72 191N 1598W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
96 205N 1637W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20)
96 205N 1637W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
96 205N 1637W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 218N 1684W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
120 218N 1684W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 218N 1684W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110 105 100 90 75 60 55
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
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