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HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 pm HST Sun Aug 12 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...135 MPH.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BUOY 51004 34 1 14(15) 45(60) 6(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69)
BUOY 51004 50 X 2( 2) 22(24) 6(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
HILO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 12(33) 1(34) X(34)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 18(50) 1(51) X(51)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19)
SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 18(35) 1(36) 1(37)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 2(20) X(20)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 2(22) 1(23)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) 1(20)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 24(43) 3(46) X(46)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19)
BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) 1(19)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16)
LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15)
NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu 2pm Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 146N 1488W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 146N 1488W 50 88 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
12 146N 1488W 64 57 16(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
24 156N 1510W 34 5 82(87) 7(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
24 156N 1510W 50 1 61(62) 13(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
24 156N 1510W 64 X 36(36) 13(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
36 165N 1533W 34 X 15(15) 59(74) 9(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86)
36 165N 1533W 50 X 3( 3) 43(46) 11(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59)
36 165N 1533W 64 X 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
48 172N 1552W 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 29(60) 13(73) 1(74) X(74)
48 172N 1552W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41)
48 172N 1552W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19)
72 187N 1589W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) 6(41) 1(42)
72 187N 1589W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 1(13)
72 187N 1589W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 203N 1626W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17)
96 203N 1626W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
96 203N 1626W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 211N 1670W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
120 211N 1670W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 211N 1670W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110 105 100 90 70 55 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
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