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HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 am HST Sun Aug 12 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...135 MPH.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BUOY 51004 34 X 3( 3) 38(41) 25(66) 5(71) X(71) X(71)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
HILO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 18(32) 1(33) X(33)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 29(46) 2(48) X(48)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19)
SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 24(33) 3(36) X(36)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11)
KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) X(20)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 5(37) 1(38)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11)
BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 1(18)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed 8am Thu 8am Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 144N 1475W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 144N 1475W 50 85 8(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
12 144N 1475W 64 58 15(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
24 153N 1498W 34 2 82(84) 8(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
24 153N 1498W 50 X 59(59) 13(72) X(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73)
24 153N 1498W 64 X 34(34) 13(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
36 162N 1518W 34 X 18(18) 54(72) 12(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86)
36 162N 1518W 50 X 3( 3) 41(44) 12(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58)
36 162N 1518W 64 X 1( 1) 21(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
48 170N 1540W 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 36(59) 14(73) X(73) X(73)
48 170N 1540W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 8(39) 1(40) X(40)
48 170N 1540W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18)
72 185N 1578W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 7(41) 1(42)
72 185N 1578W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13)
72 185N 1578W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 200N 1615W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17)
96 200N 1615W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
96 200N 1615W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 213N 1657W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
120 213N 1657W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 213N 1657W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110 100 95 90 70 55 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
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