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HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 am HST Sun Aug 12 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS...140 MPH.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 51 2(53) X(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54)
15N 145W 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BUOY 51004 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 36(54) 12(66) 1(67) X(67)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 11(34) X(34) X(34)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16)
HILO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 21(28) 4(32) X(32)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 29(36) 5(41) 1(42)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 1(16)
SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 6(31) 1(32)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) X(18)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 2(20)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 2(17)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 8(28) 2(30)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 141N 1463W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 141N 1463W 50 84 8(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
12 141N 1463W 64 58 16(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
24 150N 1485W 34 3 82(85) 7(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
24 150N 1485W 50 X 60(60) 13(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
24 150N 1485W 64 X 37(37) 12(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
36 158N 1506W 34 X 17(17) 56(73) 11(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86)
36 158N 1506W 50 X 4( 4) 41(45) 13(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60)
36 158N 1506W 64 X 1( 1) 23(24) 8(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34)
48 166N 1527W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 35(60) 14(74) 1(75) X(75)
48 166N 1527W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 10(42) 1(43) X(43)
48 166N 1527W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22)
72 180N 1561W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 30(38) 6(44) 1(45)
72 180N 1561W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16)
72 180N 1561W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
96 193N 1595W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 3(19)
96 193N 1595W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
96 193N 1595W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 208N 1639W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
120 208N 1639W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 208N 1639W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110 105 100 95 75 55 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
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