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HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 pm HST Sat Aug 11 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...135 MPH.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 70 7(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
15N 145W 50 23 9(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
15N 145W 64 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 25(56) 1(57) X(57)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) X(24)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 7(31) X(31)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) 1(23)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) X(22)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 140N 1452W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 140N 1452W 50 85 7(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
12 140N 1452W 64 58 15(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
24 147N 1474W 34 4 80(84) 8(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
24 147N 1474W 50 X 57(57) 13(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72)
24 147N 1474W 64 X 34(34) 13(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
36 154N 1494W 34 1 19(20) 52(72) 11(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85)
36 154N 1494W 50 X 4( 4) 40(44) 12(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58)
36 154N 1494W 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) 7(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30)
48 162N 1514W 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 33(60) 14(74) X(74) X(74)
48 162N 1514W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 9(40) X(40) X(40)
48 162N 1514W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19)
72 176N 1554W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 5(39) 1(40)
72 176N 1554W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13)
72 176N 1554W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 189N 1590W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15)
96 189N 1590W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
96 189N 1590W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 203N 1623W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
120 203N 1623W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 203N 1623W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110 95 95 90 70 50 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
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