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HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 pm HST Sat Aug 11 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS...140 MPH.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2pm Tue 2pm Wed
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 145W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 145W 34 24 55(79) 3(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
15N 145W 50 3 42(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
15N 145W 64 1 21(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 30(47) 2(49) X(49)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) X(19)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) X(19)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) 1(24)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2pm Tue 2pm Wed
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 138N 1439W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 138N 1439W 50 85 8(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
12 138N 1439W 64 60 15(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
24 144N 1461W 34 4 82(86) 7(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
24 144N 1461W 50 X 60(60) 13(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
24 144N 1461W 64 X 36(36) 13(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50)
36 152N 1483W 34 X 15(15) 57(72) 11(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85)
36 152N 1483W 50 X 2( 2) 42(44) 11(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57)
36 152N 1483W 64 X 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
48 159N 1505W 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 34(57) 13(70) X(70) X(70)
48 159N 1505W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37)
48 159N 1505W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)
72 174N 1546W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 6(36) X(36)
72 174N 1546W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
72 174N 1546W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
96 186N 1582W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14)
96 186N 1582W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
96 186N 1582W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 202N 1616W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
120 202N 1616W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 202N 1616W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 115 105 95 85 65 50 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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