FOPA12 PHFO 111445
PWSCP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 am HST Tue Aug 11 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 6 34 43 47 57 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 78 56 45 40 33 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 17 10 12 12 10 NA NA
HURRICANE X X X 1 X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X X X 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2am Tue 2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2pm Tue 2am Wed 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri 2am Sat 2am Sun
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
KAHULUI 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LANAI CITY 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HONOLULU 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG