FOPA12 PHFO 110845
PWSCP2
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 pm HST Mon Aug 10 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri 8pm Sat
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 5 19 42 47 47 54 52
TROP DEPRESSION 76 61 45 38 37 33 33
TROPICAL STORM 19 20 12 14 15 13 14
HURRICANE X X 1 1 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Mon 8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Tue 8pm Tue 8am Wed 8pm Wed 8pm Thu 8pm Fri 8pm Sat
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
KAILUA-KONA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAHULUI 34 1 9(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
LANAI CITY 34 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
HONOLULU 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG