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TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 16 27 32 46 52 52
TROP DEPRESSION 47 61 50 42 38 34 33
TROPICAL STORM 50 23 22 24 16 13 15
HURRICANE 1 1 1 1 1 X 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 1 1 X 1
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HILO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KAHULUI 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
LANAI CITY 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BURKE/KNABB
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