Wind speed probabilities
Requested PWSCP2.EP082009.024.0908091441 with times in HST
Display as UTC

FOPA12 PHFO 091441
PWSCP2

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24          
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009         
500 am HST Sun Aug 09 2009
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH.                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       7      16      30      39      49
TROP DEPRESSION  1      16      34      40      40      38      34
TROPICAL STORM  87      77      55      40      28      22      17
HURRICANE       13       6       4       4       2       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12       6       4       3       2       1       1
HUR CAT 2        1       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    45KT    40KT    35KT    30KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2am Tue 2am Wed 2am Thu 2am Fri
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   7(16)   X(16)   X(16)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   1(16)   X(16)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   X(15)   X(15)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  10(13)   X(13)   X(13)
HONOLULU       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
BUOY 51001     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HOUSTON