Wind speed probabilities
Requested PWSCP2.EP082009.023.0908090849 with times in HST
Display as UTC

FOPA12 PHFO 090849
PWSCP2

HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23               
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009         
1100 pm HST Sat Aug 08 2009
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       2       9      30      39      39
TROP DEPRESSION  X       4      16      35      40      38      36
TROPICAL STORM  71      77      69      49      28      23      24
HURRICANE       30      19      14       7       2       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       28      17      12       5       2       1       1
HUR CAT 2        2       2       2       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    55KT    50KT    40KT    30KT    25KT    25KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
20N 145W       50 43   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
20N 145W       64  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
HILO           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)   X(18)   X(18)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  11(19)   X(19)   1(20)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
KAHULUI        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   X(17)   1(18)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   1(16)   X(16)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
 
BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
BUOY 51001     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HOUSTON