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HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 pm HST Sat Aug 08 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 5 21 30 31
TROP DEPRESSION X 2 9 26 39 39 36
TROPICAL STORM 40 65 68 59 37 29 31
HURRICANE 60 33 22 10 3 2 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 57 29 18 8 3 2 2
HUR CAT 2 3 3 3 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 30KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Sat 2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2pm Tue 2pm Wed
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Sun 2pm Sun 2am Mon 2pm Mon 2pm Tue 2pm Wed 2pm Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 145W 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
20N 145W 50 47 5(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
20N 145W 64 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HILO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) X(23) X(23)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
BUOY 51001 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/R BALLARD
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