FOPA12 PHFO 250842
PWSCP2
TROPICAL STORM NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 pm HST Sat Oct 24 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 3 5 6 21 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 7 26 29 29 40 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 91 69 62 59 36 NA NA
HURRICANE 2 3 5 6 3 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 3 4 5 3 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 30KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Sun 8pm Sun 8am Mon 8pm Mon 8pm Tue 8pm Wed 8pm Thu
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
30N 160W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) X(25) X(25)
35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BUOY 51001 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON