FOPA12 PHFO 232054
PWSCP2
TROPICAL STORM NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 am HST Fri Oct 23 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 5 12 22 31 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 2 16 31 38 40 40 NA
TROPICAL STORM 93 78 59 45 35 28 NA
HURRICANE 5 5 5 4 3 2 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 5 5 5 4 3 2 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8pm Fri 8am Sat 8pm Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue 8am Wed
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
25N 160W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16)
35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8)
BUOY 51001 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NIHOA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
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FORECASTER R BALLARD