Wind speed probabilities
Requested PWSCP2.CP032009.017.0910222057 with times in HST
Display as UTC

FOPA12 PHFO 222057 CCA
PWSCP2

HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                  
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009         
1100 am HST Thu Oct 22 2009
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90   
KTS...105 MPH.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       3      16      32
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       1       4      16      33      36
TROPICAL STORM   1      11      27      51      60      46      30
HURRICANE       99      89      72      44      21       6       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       38      56      50      34      17       5       2
HUR CAT 2       55      25      17       7       3       1       X
HUR CAT 3        6       7       5       3       1       X       X
HUR CAT 4        1       1       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   85KT    80KT    75KT    65KT    55KT    40KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       8am Thu 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8am Sat 8am Sun 8am Mon 8am Tue
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NIIHAU         34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 160W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
30N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)   6(42)   X(42)
30N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)
30N 160W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
35N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   2(19)
35N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 51001     34  3  10(13)  14(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
BUOY 51001     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 38  44(82)   6(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50  2  36(38)  14(52)   X(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64  X  16(16)  11(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
MARO REEF      34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NIHOA          34  3   8(11)   8(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BURKE