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HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 pm HST Wed Oct 21 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105
KTS...120 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 8am Thu 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8pm Sat 8pm Sun 8pm Mon
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 8 37
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 9 26 37
TROPICAL STORM X 1 7 24 53 53 26
HURRICANE 99 99 93 75 37 12 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 11 35 43 29 11 1
HUR CAT 2 11 34 34 21 6 1 X
HUR CAT 3 76 45 19 9 2 X X
HUR CAT 4 12 9 4 2 X X X
HUR CAT 5 1 X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 105KT 100KT 90KT 80KT 65KT 50KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 8pm Wed 8am Thu 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8pm Sat 8pm Sun
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
8am Thu 8pm Thu 8am Fri 8pm Fri 8pm Sat 8pm Sun 8pm Mon
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
LIHUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NIIHAU 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 1(19) X(19)
25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 17(37) 1(38)
30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11)
30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
BUOY 51001 34 2 10(12) 17(29) 6(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39)
BUOY 51001 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BUOY 51001 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 12 59(71) 13(84) 2(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X 23(23) 24(47) 4(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X 9( 9) 18(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
MARO REEF 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NIHOA 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 5(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30)
NIHOA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
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