RSS Feeds
HI RSS FeedsFOPA12 PHFO 220248
PWSCP2
HURRICANE NEKI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 pm HST Wed Oct 21 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105
KTS...120 MPH.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun 2pm Mon
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 2 7
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 5 12 25
TROPICAL STORM X X 8 24 48 54 53
HURRICANE 99 99 92 75 46 32 15
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 5 35 44 33 25 13
HUR CAT 2 5 23 35 20 9 5 2
HUR CAT 3 67 57 19 9 4 2 X
HUR CAT 4 28 15 4 2 X X X
HUR CAT 5 1 1 X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110KT 105KT 90KT 80KT 70KT 65KT 55KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 2pm Wed 2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
2am Thu 2pm Thu 2am Fri 2pm Fri 2pm Sat 2pm Sun 2pm Mon
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17)
25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 11(38)
30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
BUOY 51001 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 8(27) 1(28) X(28)
BUOY 51001 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BUOY 51001 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 2 27(29) 43(72) 14(86) 3(89) X(89) X(89)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X 2( 2) 30(32) 18(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X 1( 1) 14(15) 15(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33)
LAYSAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARO REEF 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
NIHOA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER WROE
- Get Storm Info
- Awareness
- Hurricane History
- About the CPHC
- Contact Us
- Pacific Region Links
NWS on Facebook
NWS on Twitter
Weather-Ready Nation
- NOAA
- » NWS
- » CPHC Home Page
- » Wind speed probabilities
- » CPHC Home Page
- » NWS
Wind speed probabilities